Do Place-Based Crime Reduction Policies Work?: Evidence from the West Philadelphia Promise Zone
Published in SSRN, 2021
This paper studies the effect of the West Philadelphia Promise Zone Initiative on weekly violent crime rates in a high-crime area of West Philadelphia, where a series of public safety and quality of life improvement grants were dispersed from 2014 to 2019. Results using a difference-in-differences analysis with tract, year, and week fixed effects along with cluster-robust and bootstrapped standard errors provides causal evidence of a reduced rate of violent crime, primarily assaults and aggravated assaults. Multiple specifications of a synthetic control model predict that crime would have trended significantly upward in the Promise Zone area had the zone not been established. Dynamic difference-in-differences and propensity score matching are also employed, finding similar results and effect sizes. By the end of 2019, the Promise Zone ultimately descends to the average level of violent crime experienced across Philadelphia. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that the crime reducing effects of the Promise Zone may offset the cost of federal grant investment in public safety in the zone.
Recommended citation: Marsella, Alexander, Does Place-Based Crime Reduction Work?: Evidence from the West Philadelphia Promise Zone (November 4, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3956747 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3956747